November 5 US election bet - Harris will win

I think Harris is going to win.

I think it seems to lean her way, women will turn out for her, and abortion is a big issue.

Trump’s polling bumped up briefly following the assassination attempt, but that didn’t translate into any sustained enthusiasm. Moreover, from what I’ve seen, the number of Republicans who will definitely vote for him has declined over the last two months. This is because people who like Trump tend to love him — but right-leaning voters (that don’t love him) tend to be turned off by him. His path to victory relies on a surge of Republican turnout across the board; and I don't think he can generate it.

Perhaps even more importantly, I think the January 6th insurrection was a serious scandal which left many voters with existential worries concerning Trump being in power again. Its aftermath has motivated voters against him & caused many more moderate right-leaning voters to sit this election out.

Harris is dreadful ... Trump is terrible.

What a choice!

Kemi Badenoch - the new leader of the Conservative Party

The leader of HM Official Opposition has been elected.

The Tories have their 4th woman leading them.

Culture wars

On the first issue, the culture wars seep into the fabric of our nation. I think patriotic pride (in our nation, our imperial history, our Royal Family) along with the need for a strong defence and secure borders are the foundations of Conservatism. It’s about being proud of the journey and progression of our small island, and the number of times we lead the way for other nations around the world.

Our culture defines our broader shared system of values. Their defence should be the basis for uniting the Right against the endless left-wing “identity politics” rhetoric and its stranglehold over the public sector. Britain has an incredible history. We shaped the world. There is no squeaky-clean spotless national history. But, if one adopts a measured perspective of both good and bad, I think we should be proud as a force for good in the world. 

Immigration

On immigration, the huge levels of immigration really worry me. A shared identity and values and the feeling that we’re looking out for each other’s interests is important. For some time, I’ve had the feeling we’re unravelling into a miscellany of various tribal interests.

We’ve also rarely had a sensible conversation on the issue — and that’s because of the “omg that’s racist!” crowd derailing its every opportunity.

I preferred Jenrick on this issue. I like his tougher approach to the huge mass immigration problem, including withdrawing from the Convention on Human Rights, which was a centrepiece of his leadership campaign. He was a breath of fresh air. Mrs Badenoch served in senior positions in two v. unconservative governments. 

I’m not sure whether she can deal with the massive immigration problem.

And that alone gives Reform all the space it needs to occupy the centre-right.