Thursday, March 14, 2024

Ceasefire is on the table, but Hamas terrorists don’t want it

In “US president warns of looming Ramadan deadline and tells Israel there are ‘no excuses for not letting aid into Gaza’” (Daily Telegraph):

Joe Biden has said a ceasefire deal is in the hands of Hamas as he urged the terror group to accept an Israeli proposal for a pause in fighting.

“It’s in the hands of Hamas right now,” Mr Biden. “The Israelis have been co-operating, the offer (of a ceasefire) is rational. We’ll know in a couple of days. But we need the ceasefire.”

The talks broke down after Hamas refused to provide a list confirming which hostages in Gaza are still alive.

The deal involves:

Hamas releasing all women, children and wounded hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israel, to a ratio of about one hostage to 10 prisoners.

It also allows for hundreds of aid lorries to enter Gaza during a 40-day pause in fighting.

There seem to be no protests & exhortations calling on Hamas to release the women, children and injured? Indeed, a few days ago, Hamas even “refused to reveal how many hostages are alive” (DT):

Hamas was refusing to hand over the names of living hostages, stalling talks for a ceasefire, on Sunday night.

Israel has demanded to know how many of the roughly 130 hostages that remain in Gaza are still alive as a condition of returning to the negotiating table.

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Israel doesn’t want to be at war; but Hamas wants it

Israel is amenable to a ceasefire — as long as Hamas releases the Israeli civilians being held hostage. Hamas have not only instigated this war; but have refused to observe measures which would bring about a ceasefire — even a modest reprieve for Ramadan. They want to be in a perpetual state of war. 

People will be thinking as they read this: “oh... but is that a reason to be killing civilians?”. But, they need to blame the right people: Hamas. Hamas grabbed these non-combatants; women and children as hostages. They have wrought hell-on-Earth upon ‘their own’ people in Gaza.

A fundamental problem is that people regard Hamas as a vague external actor and not as the government of Gaza. Hamas have somehow managed to shift the responsibility for Gazan citizens wellbeing onto Israel. However, Hamas simply don’t care about the innocent Palestinian civilians. Ismail Haniyeh has called “the blood of women, children, and the elderly of Gaza ... so as to awaken our revolutionary spirit”. They will never prioritise peace, prosperity and wellbeing for the ordinary Gazans. They don’t want a ceasefire because the more the Gazans suffer, the more the West will turn on Israel and Jews in general. There’s also a report of the Hamas leadership citing civilian causalities as a good bargaining chip

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As far as I see it, a ceasefire would only ever be entertained by Hamas if it offered a strategic advantage in stopping Israel from winning the war which Hamas declared on Israel & Gaza.

The harsh reality, in my view, is that the kidnapped victims are very unlikely to be released safely. Probably Ever. And, I suspect that the Israeli government knows this.

From a strategic perspective, enacting a ceasefire would now only strengthen Hamas. They are now in a position of an almost defeated enemy, and desperate to regroup. Only Rafah is left in Hamas’ control. I think Israel should go forward with their offensive. A ceasefire called now will, in a few months/years, be another war with heavy civilian casualties against a fascist adversary that cares not for its civilian population. I don’t think Israel is going to stop until they wipe out the capabilities of Hamas. Hamas and their Iranian backers have overplayed their hand on October 7th.

17 comments:

  1. Yeah, I was finding it bizarre. Australian media is so unreliable not reporting the fact that Hamas does not want to sign the cease fire agreement. Yet, all the protests by the naive Aussie women and gay population would have been raped and killed living in Hamas.

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    1. Well, the latest is Hamas offering the kidnapped Israelis in exchange for 700-1000 Hamas/Palestinians being held in Israeli prisons.

      https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-issues-ceasefire-proposal-mediators-which-includes-exchanging-2024-03-15/

      This reminds me of the Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange; and that has proven to be a blunder by Israel. The poor kid didn't deserved to die but, on the other hand, Yehiya Sinwar was released in that exchange and he was the architect of Oct 7. The biggest issue is that it sets a dangerous precedent of kidnapping merely to demand ridiculous ransoms. That's why people say "don't negotiate with terrorists".

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  2. Hamas will never stop.Their declared aim is to destroy all Jews.

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  3. I from what I've read if it's from a reliable source or sources Hamas will keep going on fighting to the very end, can't see them signing any peace agreement either but then it's only my opinion from the other side of the world...when you are not there or near the fighting/war one really can't comment on a personal level.

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  4. The situation is almost unsolvable. It is important to note that food and medical equipment trucks are constantly entering Gaza from Israel. It's not like the media in the world is reporting.
    Hamas does not want a solution especially now during Ramadan when they want riots to develop in other areas here as well.
    I do not have enough words to thank you again for these very important posts.

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    1. So you suggest that the official informations concerning Gaza are lies ? You are a Jew and defend your position but other democratic governments say exactly the contrary. Israel is organizing starvation ( like rape it's a war tactic) of the people in Gaza with the only idea to exterminate the Palestinians. Some of the crazy ministers in the government shout it out very loudly.
      Hannah

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  7. Hi Liam -- thanks, first of all, for stopping by my blog. There's a lot to think about here. I think we shouldn't write off the hostages too quickly. It seems to me that it's still possible to negotiate the release of many more. I suspect very few (if any) Hamas leaders know where they all are or their condition, which may be part of why getting information about them is so hard -- the chaos of war. I think you're right that Hamas are using the casualties in Gaza to their advantage, but I also think they may agree to a cease fire in exchange for aid and an exchange of prisoners, and in the absence of a better alternative that seems desirable.

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  8. I can't see any solution to this conflict any time soon, and a ceasefire seems extremely unlikely. As far as I can see Hamas wants to destroy Israel and Israel wants to destroy Gaza so right now there's no scope for any compromises or common ground.

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  9. There will be some sort of ceasefire.
    I have no expectations of Hamas. After the unprevented atrocities of 7th of October, I have no expectations of my Israeli governmen either. It's all very sad.
    One thing is sure: the haters of Jews and Israelis in the world, have escaped the leash.

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