The world wants a ceasefire, but Hamas doesn’t want it

Political theater this week in the United Nations.

I wonder if the UN is aware that there was a ceasefire in place already. And, guess who broke it?

The Biden Administration has thrown a bone to the progressives and China and Russia while burnishing their reputation among the global south to save face. But, I think this has hurt Israel and bolstered Hamas. I don’t think it amounts to a serious shift from America per se; but it’s noteworthy.

From Julian Borger & Lorenzo Tondo, in “Israel isolated as UN security council demands immediate ceasefire in Gaza” (The Guardian):

The UN security council has voted to demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza for the first time since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, after the US dropped a threat to veto, bringing Israel to near total isolation on the world stage.

The vote result sets up the strongest public clash between the US president, Joe Biden, and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, since the war began.

The US abstained and the 14 other council members all voted in favour of the security council ceasefire resolution, put forward by the 10 elected council members who voiced their frustration with more than five months of deadlock between the major powers. Applause broke out in the chamber after the vote.

✲✲✲

Hamas doesn’t want a ceasefire, even if the rest of the world does

Last week, a hostage deal was agreed with Hamas in which they would release 40 Israelis against 800 Palestinian prisoners. (Yes, a joke; but that’s a tangent). Israeli negotiators agreed to it via an American-brokered compromise. But, then, on Monday, the UN General Security Council passed a resolution submitted by Russia and China demanding a ceasefire without stipulating the release of hostages.

Then, Hamas rejected the hostage deal. And just yesterday, Hamas fired rockets into Israel — for the first time in 2 months. They clearly don’t want a ceasefire; but the rest of the world still maintains Hamas somehow wants “peace”.

This resolution has done nothing but to bolster Hamas. The Biden Administration’s abstention has isolated Israel diplomatically; and has shown Hamas that the international community will pivot their pressure against Israel demanding a ceasefire which mentions but doesn’t condition the ceasefire on the release of the hostages. (Mind you, when the US proposed a resolution for a temporary ceasefire with the condition that hostages be released, Russia and China shot it down swiftly). 

The resolution tells Israel that it needs to ceasefire until the end of Ramadan, whether or not the hostages are released. And separately, it also tells Hamas that they need to unconditionally release the hostages. This subtle American shift against Israel is also a message to Hamas that they will get a ceasefire without having to pay anything. And hence, as I have mentioned, Hamas have derailed the negotiations. Afterall, why ‘negotiate’ if you’re already going to get what you want via the UNSC. Namely, their original demands of a permanent ceasefire, troop withdrawal and hostages-for-all-prisoners exchange.

Moreover, there already was a ceasefire in place on Oct 6 which Hamas broke. It was agreed after rocket attacks on 21 May 2021. We’ve always had ceasefires which Hamas keeps on breaking.

There’ll be calls for another ceasefire next week, and probably pressure on Israel to release much more prisoners and accept even worse terms.

✲✲✲

The Yasser Arafat romantic projection

Secular liberals in the West keep projecting onto Islamic terrorist organisations some kind of anti-colonial/imperial rationality which we are more familiar with. There are ‘good guys’ against the ‘bad guys’. We tend to think about this conflict as if we are dealing with charming Yasser Arafat … like an alternate reality. Mind you, Yasser Arafat was anything but charming. As such, big-strong westerners sweep in, rescue the “oppressed”, reverse centuries of resentment and hatred, and put the jewel back in the crown.

✲✲✲

Failure to understand Hamas’ support

A real problem in the West — and particularly among the Left — is to look at the Hamas-Israel war and think it’s just some innocent Palestinians that are getting killed here; and that Hamas is a separate conceptual entity. However, almost every single poll on the issue shows overwhelming support for Hamas among the Palestinians (e.g. “57% of respondents in Gaza and 82% in the West Bank believe Hamas was correct in launching the October attack, the poll indicated”). 

With respect to Hamas, or a majority of the general Palestinian population in greater Israel; when asked in interviews about peoples’ solutions — the average answer was not coexistence. That is the problem. The desire for political autonomy is understandable; but when you see the exultation of ‘martyrdom’, you know you are dealing with a very dangerous and warped outlook.

Palestinians have been lectured, preached, and taught that Israel is only a week or a month away from non-existence. “If you resist a little longer, the Jews will leave ...”. This fascistic guerilla-warfare psychology is not just totally delusional, but presents no clear military path to any kind of victory. Afterall, what was the military object of Oct 7 – besides a bloodletting? They don’t want a two-state solution.

Every peace negotiation begins with Israel asking: “are you prepared to recognise the sovereignty of Israel?” Israel’s non-negotiable demand is the precise negation of Palestine’s non-negotiable demand. Once Palestinians stop seeing the Jews of Israel through the prism of French rule in Algeria, and drop the ridiculous ‘right of return’ nonsense, then negotiations can finally happen.

✲✲✲

The principle of negotiating with terrorists

Something I’ve been thinking about is what happens once a liberal democracy starts “negotiating” with terrorists? I think you invariably incentivise terrorist activities. You make it profitable. It suddenly becomes attractive to kidnap citizens of a government and hold them ransom. So, while the Israeli government thinks it may be saving lives in the immediate negotiation, that government is putting future Israeli lives at greater risk. As soon as you pay the ransom for one person, it gives an inherent legitimacy to the transaction.  

On the other hand, Ronald Reagan traded arms for hostages in the Iran-Contra affair. Also, the United States has been negotiating with Iran on their development of their nuclear weapons programme? Also, there were negotiations with the IRA. 

So, what is the answer? Should Israel be negotiating the hostages?

In the Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange, Israel negotiated the soldier’s release in exchange for 1027 prisoners held in Israeli custody. According to wikipedia, of which “two hundred and eighty of these had been sentenced to life in prison for planning and perpetrating various attacks against Israeli targets”. So v. dangerous people were released. Among the prisoners released was Hamas Chief Yehiya Sinwar who is one of the architects of Oct 7.

I think Israel has to ignore international pressures, keep plowing through and get the job done of eliminating Hamas. Israel has a duty to guard its borders and the rest of its Israeli civilians. 

At least, with these new missile launches, Hamas can’t use the excuse of Ramadan anymore.

✲✲✲

Corrigendum (28.03.2024): Above, it said rockets were fired for first time in 2 months. Thanks to Yael, rockets have been fired from Gaza repeatedly.