Review: Viral: The Search for the Origin of Covid-19 by Alina Chan and Matt Ridley

I've just finished reading 'Viral', and found it jaw-dropping and completely gripping. Rather than a traditional non-fiction, it is written more like an engrossing detective story.

Unlike the 2003 SARS pandemic, we still don't have any conclusive evidence as to the pandemic's origin. It remains 'unknown'. This status quo is both ridiculous and unacceptable. 

When an airplane crashes, there is a determined effort to identify the cause of the catastrophe. The fact that a serious and full investigation into a pandemic that killed millions points to something deeply wrong.

This book takes the reader through the technical data, the virology theory, and the astounding history of random Twitter users - during global lockdowns - dredging and trawling the web for data concerning the covid-19 genome among published journals. It's clear from the book that without these 'internet sleuths' we may never have actually unearthed facts which the authorities were embarrassed into disclosing. Ultimately, this is a serious book which should merit broad government-level consideration, and scientific and political introspection.

Both writers grapple with both theories (natural origin and lab-leak) objectively and with impartiality. The book makes a very convincing case that covid-19 arose because of material held in research laboratories in Wuhan. However, this does not detract from the overall even-handedness of the book. 

Tracing covid

The story unfolds with the unearthing - via Twitter - of reported 'pneumonia' deaths in the Yunnan province in 2012. In some bat-infested mine, some miners had been struck down. So serious was this that it prompted repeated visits by scientists from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). These reports were dug-up by the sleuths in doctoral dissertations published in China; but not available on international databases. Afterwards, repeated visits by external authorities to the mines (e.g. WHO, BBC etc.) were hampered by China with make-shift roadblocks etc, and 'minders' being ever-present. It seems likely that these caves may be the true origin of covid. (As with image below, from the book, it seems scientists may not have worn the full PPE protection to-and-from the mines; and so the virus could have hitched a ride on their clothes etc.) 

The book illustrates the inherent problem of dictatorships. The Chinese authorities appeared to have repeatedly and systematically destroyed evidence and data, online database were abruptly and inexplicably taken offline, obfuscatory explanations given, forbidding of investigations, and the punishment of leakers and informants.

Crucially, as the book explains, bats have tended to harbour an abundance of 'zoonotic viruses', via large virus pools in which mutations may be able to jump species. I found it incredible that the WIV - headed by Dr Shi - had already been focused on studying bat viruses for many years and had already finished sequencing the coronavirus genome some years prior. This was never shared with the international community - but only grudgingly disclosed after it was discovered online via the Twitter sleuths.

The Institute was already pursuing the so-called 'gain of function' research on covid-related viruses in order to 'get ahead' of the next pandemic by better understanding viral evolution and what makes it more potent (via the 'furin cleavage site'). What's fascinating is the scientists who were initially surprised by the 'atypical' adaptation of covid-19 from the outset against humans. 

The book is excellent at explaining the idiosyncrasies of covid. Generally speaking, in bats, the coronavirus family is a mild virus which targets their intestines; and yet - in humans - it is remarkably well-adapted and very contagious. In science, a virus involved in a spillover, is extremely unlikely to be highly infectious. This is because the binding receptor will be different between humans and the original animal host. As such, it requires mutations which explains why the first cases involve those in close proximity to animals. These early patients often catch but don't transmit the virus. The receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein of covid-19 is well adapted to the human AC2 receptor - but not as adapted to other species. Since covid-19 had few earlier mutations, the question is how the virus was immediately suited for human transmission. 

The source of the outbreak being the fish section of the Wuhan wet-market must be dismissed. Furthermore, the Chinese explanation of transmission via frozen food must also be disregarded. The authors point out how ridiculous this explanation is vis-a-vis basic virology (and how the WHO entertained it). The authors take us through the pangolin and civet cats as viral vessels; but the true mystery is the furin cleavage site. 

This aspect of covid-19 does not typically appear in bat coronaviruses. The authors explain what the RBD on the spike proteins are, and how they facilitate viral replication. The point is that it indicates some engineering; because the furin cleavage site is an added bit that doesn't appear in the other coronavirus genomes. Moreover - and this I found shocking - this genetic research was something that the WIV had already been conducting - i.e. inserting into other viruses genetic material etc, as part of its research. 

To my mind, these facts make the lab-leak theory the more probable cause of the pandemic. The authors also cite:

• Biosafety concerns at the lab.
• Chinese refusal to share data concerning the earliest human case in Nov 2019.
• The apparent kick-starting of vaccine developments in China before the outbreak was even declared.
• The ridiculous level of antagonism and non-cooperation by the Chinese authorities to investigate the origin.
• The failure to find an infected animals in the Wuhan wet-market.
• The fact that the world-leading institute (WIV) had nearly 200 bat coronavirus situated in its building in the middle of Wuhan itself. (Who, in their right mind, sticks a virology lab in the middle of a big metropolis?)
• The inherently risky nature of the research at WIV.
• The total refusal of the WIV to share its database, taking it offline in late 2019.
• Western virologists (including Sir Jeremy Farrar and Dr Anthony Fauci) had collaborated with the WIV to shut down debate in the West and label a lab leak a conspiracy theory despite privately expressing reservations against the natural origin theory.
• Peter Daszak (who had written in the Lancet against the lab-leak theory as a conspiracy; and has since become an embarrassment) had actually applied to the Pentagon, in collaboration with WIV, to do furin cleavage site experiments in bat coronaviruses. 

In the end

Ultimately, we are left with possibility that the US government may have unwittingly funded research into the very lab in Wuhan.

Another disturbing aspect of the pandemic is the widespread censorship of debate; and especially on Twitter and Facebook. I remember Twitter being a forum used by protesters during the Arab Spring; but nowadays it was part of the ossifying and stultifying response from science journals and agencies, most notably, the WHO. 

One of the biggest mysteries in virology of recent decades, was received by scientists and agencies who were anxious not to irritate the Chinese government. And, in some cases, content to collaborate with the Chinese government's obscurantism of the true origins of covid-19 (viz. Daszak).

As the authors point out, this is a brilliant template for how authoritarian regimes and dictatorships can best pivot the Western democracies into compliance. It also raises a serious question of how the Foreign Office is to approach future global crises. How should our universities and scientific journals handle Chinese funding? Why did so many liberals and scientists in the West found themselves secretly impressed by the Chinese authoritarian response to the pandemic. 

Ultimately, 'Viral' is a meticulously-researched book on the origins of covid-19 by intelligent and learned authors. It also raises a fascinating question as to how world governments - and, in particular, scientists - are to navigate China's autocratic closed political instincts which - one would have assumed - should not sit well with the scientific community. 

The feeling of a cover-up of a mistake has probably done much to amplify a sense of mistrust. I think it will take time to get over this pandemic, and I suspect that true catharsis can only prevail once we manage to get to the bottom of its origin. We also need a serious discussion on all scientific research conducted in the name of getting-ahead and which carry enormous risks.