Biden’s new 3-phased Israel ceasefire strategy

Here are my quick thoughts on the recent Biden speech. In short, the plan involves: 

• Phase 1 — Full and complete ceasefire, withdrawal of IDF forces & exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners. 
• Phase 2 — All remaining living hostages returned & full Israeli withdrawal.
• Phase 3 — The ceasefire will become the permanent with reconstruction of Gaza.

Yair Rosenberg in “Biden’s Bold Gaza Cease-Fire Gambit” (The Atlantic) takes the view that:

• Netanyahu probably has approved the plan.
• Netanyahu cannot back this plan publicly, or the coalition would shatter.
• The PM would benefit from Israel being seen to have been “forced” into accepting this deal. So, if anything goes wrong, the PM can blame “Biden’s deal”.

My thoughts

In my view, Israel should do the deal — despite the fact that it isn’t at all fair to Israel.

1. Phase 1 isn’t so bad — and may give Israel some of its hostages back.
2. Phase 2 will almost certainly collapse anyway. The Israeli government has been totally & absolutely clear that there won’t be any ceasefire unless Hamas rule is toppled. Hamas has been equally adamant to reject anything short of a commitment to a “permanent ceasefire”. Phase 2 will breakdown over this detail in the framework. Biden said the US (and Arab states!) will “make sure” Hamas can’t rearm. But, Israel wants them out of power. Hamas obviously won’t accept that.
3. Hamas’ leaders aren’t all situated in Gaza. The Israelis cannot “crush” them entirely through warfare in Gaza, and nor can Israel destroy their Iranian backers by staying in Gaza either. Even if they were in Gaza, Israel cannot crush them completely without resorting to extreme measures.
4. Phase 3 is completely vague and unattainable.
5. Israel does need American diplomatic support and military power. Israel cannot afford to have America siding with the ICC/ICJ actions. Israel produces very little weapons domestically. The withdrawal of US support would mean the Israel cannot fight anymore while the hostages are turned into sex slaves.
6. There may be non-public clauses — that haven’t been publicly discussed — in which require Hamas cedes power to another body (e.g. an Egyptian or an Arab coalition to oversee the Strip). If Hamas is no longer in charge, and their tunnels and terror infrastructure are destroyed, then Israel’s goals would be achieved.

All-in-all, this is a 6-week ceasefire with hostages dealing.

The problem here is the horrible precedent of “ceasefire-for-hostages” deals in terms of emboldening Hamas terrorists which is an enduring danger to Israel (and I’ve discussed before). More importantly, Hamas gets an indefinite ceasefire while continuing to hold the hostages and Israel retreats and start negotiating again. This can only be a hard sell. And we mustn’t forget that Hamas has broken every ceasefire it agreed to.